# HIP-4 Outcome Markets on Hyperliquid - Multi-Outcome, Split & Negate > HIP-4 outcome trading is live on Hyperliquid mainnet with multi-outcome markets, split/negate operations, and recurring daily binary outcomes on BTC, ETH, HYPE, and SOL settling at 06:00 UTC. *Source: https://hyperliquidguide.com/ecosystem/hip-4-outcome-trading* ## What Is HIP-4? HIP-4 introduces **outcome trading** to Hyperliquid - a new contract primitive that sits alongside perpetual futures on HyperCore's trading engine. If perpetuals are about continuous price exposure with no expiration, outcome contracts are about **specific events resolving at specific times within defined price boundaries**. Announced on February 2, 2026, **HIP-4 went live on Hyperliquid mainnet on May 2, 2026** as a limited-feature initial release. The first market is a recurring binary outcome that settles daily at 06:00 UTC to the BTC mark price on Hyperliquid. The team has been explicit that this rollout is intended to **validate the technical implementation**, with additional features and markets being added in stages from here. > **Note:** **Update (June 20, 2026):** Under the **[AQAv2 spec](/ecosystem/aqav2-usdc-aligned-quote-asset)**, HIP-4 canonical outcome markets now settle in **USDC**, with Coinbase as treasury deployer and Circle as technical deployer. The **[USDH sunset](/ecosystem/usdh-stablecoin-guide) is complete** — all USDH-denominated markets on HyperCore have settled. Some examples below were written for the original USDH denomination; the mechanics — recurring binary BTC, multi-outcome split/negate, daily 06:00 UTC settlement — are identical under USDC. HIP-4 brings fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed price range at a predetermined expiration date. These are not perpetuals with extra steps. They are a fundamentally different instrument designed for prediction markets, binary event contracts, bounded options, and anything else where you want to express a view on a discrete outcome. > **Key takeaway:** HIP-4 adds outcome trading to Hyperliquid - fully collateralized contracts with fixed expirations and zero liquidation risk. It is a general-purpose primitive for prediction markets, binary contracts, and bounded options, all running natively on HyperCore with composability across Hyperliquid's existing margin system. ![Hyperliquid Outcomes page showing live daily binary markets on BTC, HYPE, ETH, and SOL with Yes/No odds and 24-hour volume, plus a multi-outcome BTC price range market](/images/ecosystem/shared/hyperliquid-outcomes-page.webp) *The Outcomes tab on **[app.hyperliquid.xyz](https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/Concept211)**. Each card is a live market with Yes/No odds, implied percentages, and 24-hour volume. The BTC price range card at the bottom is a multi-outcome question rather than a simple binary.* [HYPE](/ecosystem/what-is-hype-token) rose **10% on the day** of the original announcement. The mainnet launch on May 2, 2026 shipped with a narrow initial scope: one contract type on one underlying. --- ## The First Market: Recurring Binary BTC The launch market is a single recurring binary outcome contract on the Hyperliquid BTC mark price. ### How the Recurring Binary Works - **Underlying**: Hyperliquid BTC perp mark price - **Settlement time**: Every day at **06:00 UTC** - **Type**: Binary - the contract resolves to either 0 or 1 USDC - **Recurring**: A fresh contract is available each day, so traders do not have to wait for a new market to be listed - **Collateralization**: 100% - no leverage, no liquidation, no margin calls Structurally, a recurring binary is about as simple as the primitive gets. It avoids the complexity of one-off events (a sourced reference, dispute logic, exotic resolution rules) and runs on data the protocol already produces: the BTC mark price that powers Hyperliquid's largest perpetual market. The practical effect is that settlement, the opening call auction, and order book mechanics can all run without any external oracle or resolution dependency. > **Note:** Because the first HIP-4 market settles to the Hyperliquid BTC mark price, there is no external oracle dependency: the same price feed that already settles billions in BTC perp volume every day is what determines the outcome. This site does not know why this contract type was selected for launch and does not speculate. Offchain-event markets (sports, elections, news) became possible later via [canonical outcome markets](/ecosystem/hyperliquid-canonical-outcome-markets), which use validator consensus instead of an external oracle. ### Now Live: ETH, HYPE, and SOL Daily Outcomes The recurring binary primitive is no longer BTC-only. Hyperliquid now runs recurring **daily binary outcomes on ETH, HYPE, and SOL** alongside the original BTC market. Each works identically to the launch contract: it is automatically deployed and settled **daily at 06:00 UTC** to the Hyperliquid mark price of the underlying perp (for example, the ETH-USDC mark price for the ETH outcome). - **BTC** - daily binary settling to the BTC perp mark price - **ETH** - daily binary settling to the ETH-USDC mark price - **HYPE** - daily binary settling to the [HYPE](/ecosystem/what-is-hype-token) perp mark price - **SOL** - daily binary settling to the SOL perp mark price This is exactly the staged expansion the limited-feature launch was built toward - proving the primitive on a single internally-settled market, then replicating it across the next-largest perps with zero new oracle or resolution risk. All four use the same opening call auction, settlement engine, and full-collateralization model. The official [contract specification for recurring outcomes](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/contract-specifications#recurring-outcomes) documents the full set. --- ### Why "Limited-Feature" Matters The official framing is that the launch is a **limited-feature initial release** intended to validate the technical implementation. In practice, that means: - **A narrow market set** - recurring binary and range outcomes on a handful of major assets, not yet the full suite of bounded-options and event-based instruments described in the original spec - **Settles to internal Hyperliquid data** rather than external oracles or resolution committees - **Conservative parameters** - small position sizes and capped activity are likely while the team monitors behavior - **Rolling out in stages** - additional features and markets will be added as the team gains confidence in the production system This is the same playbook Hyperliquid used for [HIP-3 builder-deployed perps](/ecosystem/hip-3-builder-codes) - ship a narrow first version, prove it works under real volume, then progressively expand the surface area. Anyone who wants to be early to outcome trading on a major derivatives venue can use this window to learn the mechanics before the broader rollout. The official [HIP-4 contract specification](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/contract-specifications#recurring-outcomes) covers the recurring outcome rules in detail. --- ## How Outcome Trading Works Understanding HIP-4 requires grasping how its contracts differ from the perpetual futures that Hyperliquid is known for. ### Core Mechanics Every HIP-4 outcome contract has four defining characteristics: 1. **Fixed expiration date** - unlike perpetuals, which run indefinitely, outcome contracts settle at a specific point in time 2. **Fully collateralized** - every position is 100% backed, meaning zero leverage and zero liquidation risk 3. **Predefined price range** - contracts settle within a bounded range using objective reference data 4. **USDC settlement** - canonical contracts settle in USDC, the [aligned quote asset](/ecosystem/aqav2-usdc-aligned-quote-asset) under AQAv2 (markets originally settled in [USDH](/ecosystem/usdh-stablecoin-guide), now sunset) The fully collateralized design is a deliberate choice. Prediction markets and event contracts are volatile around resolution - a binary contract can go from 50 cents to zero or one dollar in seconds. Leverage in that context would create cascading liquidations and broken markets. By requiring full collateralization, HIP-4 ensures that every contract can settle cleanly regardless of how extreme the price movement is. > **Note:** Because HIP-4 contracts are fully collateralized with no leverage, there is no liquidation risk. Your maximum loss on any position is the amount you put in. This makes outcome trading accessible to users who want defined-risk exposure without the complexity of managing margin and liquidation levels. ### Opening Call Auction New outcome markets do not just open for trading with no price discovery. HIP-4 uses a **15-minute opening call auction** to establish initial pricing for each new contract. During this window, participants submit orders that are aggregated and matched at a single clearing price. This prevents the sniping and manipulation that plagues many prediction market launches, where the first few trades can set wildly inaccurate prices. ### Fees: Nothing Today, Half of Spot Soon Outcome markets on Hyperliquid mainnet traded with **no fee at all** from launch until late August 2026. That has changed. The network upgrade Hyperliquid announced on August 14 enabled fees on validator-deployed outcome markets, in preparation for the [deployer fee scale](/ecosystem/hip-4-permissionless-deployment) that permissionless markets carry, and mainnet `outcomeMeta` now returns a top-level `feeScale` where it previously returned none. The headline number from the announcement: **the average outcome trading fee will be half that of non-outcome spot trading**. Spot starts at 0.070% taker on the base tier, so the halving points at roughly 0.035% on average. How it gets to half is the interesting part, because the fee model is genuinely different from perps and spot: - **Minting is free.** Turning collateral into a complete set of outcome tokens charges nobody and counts no volume. - **You pay on the way out, not the way in.** The docs are explicit that outcome trading "only charges fees when closing or settling, not when opening outcome positions." A round trip that would cost you two taker fees on spot costs you one here. - **Settlement is a fee event.** When a contract resolves, the charge applies to `settle_fraction * size`, so holding to expiry is not a way around it. - **There are no maker rebates.** A trader who would earn a rebate on spot or perps pays zero on outcome maker orders instead of collecting one. That is worse than spot for a market maker and better than spot for everyone else. - **Only fee-paying volume counts.** Trades where nobody pays contribute nothing toward your [VIP tier progression](/guides/fees/fee-tiers), so outcome activity builds volume history more slowly than the raw notional suggests. Mechanically, the effect of charging on close and settle rather than on open is that minting a complete set costs nothing, and the fee lands at the point where a position is realized. Why the schedule was structured that way is not something this site can speak to. > **Tip:** If you have wanted to try outcome markets, the current window is the cheapest they will ever be: mainnet outcome trading is free until the network upgrade lands. That is not a reason to take a position you would not otherwise take, but it does make the daily BTC, ETH, HYPE, and SOL binaries a low-cost way to learn the mechanics before fees switch on. ### Settlement When an outcome contract reaches its expiration date, it settles using **objective reference data** - the actual result of whatever event the contract tracks. A binary contract on whether BTC exceeds $150,000 by a given date settles based on the actual BTC price at expiration. A political outcome contract settles based on the verified result. The settlement process is deterministic: once the reference data is confirmed, all positions resolve automatically. --- ## What You Can Trade HIP-4 is not limited to a single contract type. It is a general-purpose primitive that supports a range of instruments. ### Binary Yes/No Contracts The simplest form: will something happen or not? Examples include whether a specific cryptocurrency will exceed a certain price by a given date, whether a protocol will launch a token before a deadline, or whether a governance proposal will pass. You buy at a price between 0 and 1 USDC, and the contract settles at either 0 or 1. The launch HIP-4 market - the recurring binary BTC outcome described above - is exactly this shape, but resolves to a clean BTC mark price each day rather than a one-off event. You can trade these directly from the Outcomes tab in the Hyperliquid app, where each market shows the current Yes and No odds alongside 24-hour volume. ### Range Outcomes More nuanced than binary. Instead of yes or no, range outcomes divide the possibility space into multiple buckets. For example, a range contract on ETH's price at year-end might have buckets for under $2,000, $2,000–$3,000, $3,000–$5,000, and over $5,000. You can buy into any bucket based on your view of the probability distribution. ### Bounded Options-Like Instruments HIP-4 contracts with defined price ranges can function similarly to options - offering exposure to price movements within a bounded corridor. While they are not traditional options with strike prices and Greeks, they provide comparable defined-risk, defined-reward exposure for traders who want asymmetric payoff profiles. ### Event-Based Contracts Sports results, political milestones, financial events, protocol metrics - anything with an objectively verifiable outcome can be structured as an HIP-4 contract. This is where the prediction market aspect shines, enabling markets on real-world events that traditional finance either cannot serve or serves poorly. > **Tip:** HIP-4's range of contract types means you are not limited to simple binary bets. If you have a nuanced view - say, you think ETH will finish the year between $4,000 and $6,000 rather than just "up or down" - range outcomes let you express that view precisely and capitalize on it if you are right. **Outcome Trading Is Live on Hyperliquid** — HIP-4 is now live on mainnet, starting with a recurring binary BTC outcome market. Set up your Hyperliquid account with our referral code and lock in a 4% lifetime fee discount across perps, spot, and outcome contracts. [Create Account with 4% Off](https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/Concept211) --- ## Multi-Outcome Markets Now Live (May 7, 2026) Five days after the binary launch, HIP-4 took a meaningful step forward. **Multi-outcome markets - referred to in the protocol as "questions" - are now live**, alongside split and merge support for binary markets. This is the first non-trivial expansion of the HIP-4 surface, and it changes how outcome trading works in two important ways: markets can now express more than yes-or-no, and capital can move between related positions without locking up fresh collateral for each leg. For a deeper walkthrough of these mechanics, see our [multi-outcome markets explainer](/ecosystem/hyperliquid-multi-outcome-markets). ### What Changed - **Multi-outcome markets**: A single market can now contain multiple linked outcomes (e.g. BTC ends below range, in range, above range) instead of being limited to a binary yes/no - **Split**: Turn a single unit of collateral into a complete set of outcome tokens covering every bucket - one USDC becomes one token of each outcome, summing to one - **Negate**: Express a short view on a specific outcome inside a multi-outcome market without selling the others - **Merge**: Recombine a full set of outcome tokens back into the underlying collateral - the inverse of split - **Split and merge for binary markets**: The same mechanics now apply to the recurring binary BTC market that launched on May 2 The combined effect is **greater capital efficiency**. Under the old binary model, expressing a nuanced multi-region view (BTC ends below $90k, between $90k–$110k, or above $110k) meant taking three separate positions and posting collateral against each. Under the multi-outcome model, you split once and trade the legs you want. ### The First Multi-Outcome Market: Recurring BTC Price Range The first live multi-outcome market is a **recurring BTC price-range contract that settles daily at 06:00 UTC** against the Hyperliquid BTC mark price - the same settlement mechanism as the launch binary, but with a richer payoff structure. - **Underlying**: Hyperliquid BTC perp mark price - **Settlement time**: Every day at **06:00 UTC** - **Type**: Multi-outcome with **asymmetric upside, downside, and an intermediate range bucket** relative to an initial reference price - **Recurring**: A fresh contract is available each day, just like the binary - **Collateralization**: 100% - no leverage, no liquidation, no margin calls The asymmetric structure is the interesting part. Rather than a symmetric "above or below the strike" binary, the contract carves the price space into **distinct upside, downside, and middle regions**, each priced independently. Traders can express views like "BTC will probably stay roughly here" or "BTC is more likely to break out than break down" with a single trade rather than constructing a synthetic from multiple binary contracts. > **Note:** The asymmetric payoff design means range markets can encode information that binary markets cannot. A binary contract says BTC ends above or below $X. A range contract can say BTC ends well below, slightly below, in a middle band, slightly above, or well above. Each bucket is priced based on the market's collective probability estimate - giving you a real-time, tradable distribution rather than a single yes/no probability. The full mechanics are documented in the official [Hyperliquid contract specification for recurring outcomes](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/contract-specifications#recurring-outcomes). --- ## The Composability Advantage This is where HIP-4 gets genuinely interesting - and where it separates itself from every standalone prediction market. ### Unified Margin System HIP-4 outcome contracts run on the **same HyperCore trading engine** as Hyperliquid's perpetual futures. They share the same [unified margin system](/guides/trading/unified-accounts-guide), the same collateral pools, and the same account structure. This is not a bolted-on sidecar product; it is a native extension of the core platform. What this means in practice: your outcome positions and your perp positions live in the same account and can **automatically offset negatively correlated risks**. If you are long BTC perps and also hold a binary contract that pays out if BTC drops below a certain level, HyperCore recognizes these as partially hedging positions. Your total margin requirement is lower than it would be holding each position in isolation. > **Key takeaway:** HIP-4's killer feature is composability with Hyperliquid's existing margin system. Outcome positions and perpetual positions share collateral pools and auto-offset correlated risks - delivering prime brokerage-style capital efficiency that no standalone prediction market can match. ### Prime Brokerage-Style Capital Efficiency This kind of cross-instrument margining is something that in traditional finance is only available through a prime brokerage - the kind of service that Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley offers to hedge funds with nine-figure accounts. HIP-4 brings that same capital efficiency to anyone with a Hyperliquid account. Polymarket cannot do this. Kalshi cannot do this. No isolated prediction market can offer cross-margining with your futures positions because they do not have a futures engine. Hyperliquid already does, and HIP-4 integrates directly into it. ### What This Means for Traders For sophisticated traders, the composability means you can construct complex multi-instrument strategies without capital inefficiency. Hedge your perp positions with outcome contracts. Use binary contracts as tail-risk insurance. Build structured trades that combine directional perp exposure with event-driven outcome bets - all within a single margin account. For simpler traders, it means you do not need to move capital between platforms. Your USDC balance works for perps, spot, and outcome contracts. One account, one interface, full flexibility. ## The Market Opportunity HIP-4 is not just a feature addition - it positions Hyperliquid to capture share of massive existing markets. ### Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi have proven that there is real demand for prediction markets. Combined, they process **$10–18 billion in monthly trading volume**. But they operate as isolated platforms with limited composability, no cross-margining, and no integration with broader trading infrastructure. HIP-4 offers a structurally superior product for any trader who also trades futures or wants capital-efficient event exposure. For a full head-to-head on fees, market creation, and liquidity, see our [Hyperliquid vs Polymarket comparison](/compare/hyperliquid-vs-polymarket). ### Options and Structured Products The bounded options-like instruments that HIP-4 supports enter an even larger market. **BTC and ETH options markets alone process $112–192 billion in monthly volume**. HIP-4 contracts will not replace traditional options on day one, but they offer defined-risk, fully collateralized alternatives that are accessible without KYC, available 24/7, and composable with perp positions. Combined with [options exchanges and structured products](/ecosystem/hyperliquid-options-structured-products) emerging on HyperEVM, Hyperliquid is building a comprehensive derivatives stack. ### Revenue Projections Analyst estimates project meaningful new revenue from HIP-4: | Instrument Type | Estimated Monthly Revenue | |---|---| | **Prediction Markets** | $1.5–3 million | | **Options-Like Instruments** | $11–15 million | | **Combined Annual Run Rate** | $150–216 million | These are incremental to Hyperliquid's existing perp revenue and the [HIP-3 builder code](/ecosystem/hip-3-builder-codes) revenue streams. If the projections hold, HIP-4 could represent the second-largest revenue source for the protocol after core perpetual trading. > **Warning:** Mainnet revenue at launch was small - the system started with a single recurring binary BTC market while the team validated the implementation, and has since expanded to recurring outcomes on ETH, HYPE, and SOL. Revenue projections above are analyst estimates based on comparable markets and the full HIP-4 surface, not the initial release. Actual adoption and volume will depend on market conditions, the rollout pace of additional markets, and user demand. Treat these figures as directional estimates, not commitments. ## Current Status and Timeline As of **August 2026**, HIP-4 is in the following state: - **Announced**: February 2, 2026 - **Testnet**: Live since Q1 2026 - used to stress-test settlement, the opening call auction, and composability with the perps engine - **Mainnet binary launch**: **May 2, 2026** - limited-feature initial release with a single recurring binary BTC outcome market settling daily at 06:00 UTC - **Multi-outcome upgrade**: **May 7, 2026** - "questions" go live with split, negate, and merge operations; binary markets gain split and merge; first multi-outcome market is a recurring BTC price-range contract - **[Canonical outcome markets](/ecosystem/hyperliquid-canonical-outcome-markets)**: **May 25, 2026** - validator-deployed markets on offchain events go live via automated newsfeed software; validators vote on deployment and settlement based on unambiguous rules, correctness, and subjective quality - **Recurring outcomes expand beyond BTC**: **June 2026** - daily binary outcomes go live on ETH, HYPE, and SOL, each settling at 06:00 UTC to the underlying perp's Hyperliquid mark price - **[Permissionless deployment on testnet](/ecosystem/hip-4-permissionless-deployment)**: **July 31, 2026** - deployers can activate, instantiate validator-voted templates, and settle their own markets through a documented actions API, with no gas cost and no auction; testnet caps sit at 10 active outcomes per deployer and 50 deployments per day - **Initial goal**: Validate the technical implementation under real capital before expanding the surface area - **Next steps**: Additional features and markets to be rolled out in stages, culminating in [permissionless deployment](/ecosystem/hip-4-permissionless-deployment) that lets builders deploy their own outcome markets - **HYPE market reaction**: +10% on the original announcement day in February - **Dune indexing**: **July 2026** - HyperCore data landed on [Dune](https://dune.com), and HIP-4 markets were included from day one, so outcome-market orders and fills are queryable in SQL alongside perps. See our [trading tools guide](/guides/trading/hyperliquid-trading-tools) for what that unlocks - **Second permissionless feature drop**: **August 14, 2026** - deployers can add outcomes to a live question, template instantiations carry a configurable fee scale from 0 to 10, sports and central-bank-rate templates join the price ones, and mainnet limits are published at 100 concurrent outcomes and 500 deploys per day per deployer - **Fees switch on**: **August 2026** - validator-deployed outcome markets start charging, averaging half of ordinary spot fees - **[Permissionless deployment on mainnet](/ecosystem/hip-4-permissionless-deployment)**: **week ending August 31, 2026** - seven approved templates go live on mainnet and the first deployer outside the protocol lists markets, mostly binaries on trade.xyz index perps The observable pattern in the dates above is incremental: a narrow first version, then successive expansions. The May 7 multi-outcome upgrade was the first of those steps. This site does not have a roadmap and does not know what is planned next or on what timeline, so treat any expectation of further contract types or underlyings as inference rather than information. The direction Hyperliquid stated publicly was **[permissionless deployment](/ecosystem/hip-4-permissionless-deployment)**, and it arrived on mainnet in the week ending August 31, 2026 after a month on testnet. Anyone can now deploy outcome markets by staking HYPE and instantiating validator-voted templates, the same way [HIP-3](/ecosystem/hip-3-builder-codes) opened perp deployment. The mainnet catalog is a narrow seven templates against 55 on testnet, so what expands next is a validator vote rather than an engineering milestone. **Trade the First HIP-4 Market on Hyperliquid** — The recurring binary BTC outcome market is live on mainnet. Set up your Hyperliquid account now with our referral code and get a permanent 4% fee discount on all trading - perps, spot, and outcome contracts. [Sign Up with 4% Discount](https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/Concept211) ## How HIP-4 Fits the Bigger Picture HIP-4 is the third major expansion of Hyperliquid's product surface in less than a year: 1. **HyperEVM** brought general-purpose smart contracts to the chain, enabling a full DeFi ecosystem - [read our HyperEVM guide](/ecosystem/hyperevm-explained) 2. **[HIP-3](/ecosystem/hip-3-builder-codes)** enabled permissionless perpetual market deployment, turning Hyperliquid from a product into a platform 3. **HIP-4** adds outcome trading, extending the platform into prediction markets and bounded options Each expansion leverages HyperCore's existing infrastructure while opening entirely new addressable markets. The cumulative effect is a protocol that can serve perpetual traders, DeFi users, prediction market participants, and options traders - all within a single, composable ecosystem. No other DeFi protocol offers this breadth of trading instruments on a single L1 with unified margin. For [HYPE token holders](/ecosystem/what-is-hype-token), each new instrument type represents an additional fee revenue stream that feeds into the buyback and burn mechanism. More instruments, more volume, more fees, more HYPE burned. **Start Trading on Hyperliquid Today** — Perps, spot, builder markets, and soon outcome trading - all on one platform. Use our referral code for a 4% lifetime fee discount across every product. [Claim Your 4% Fee Discount](https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/Concept211) > **Note:** This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Prediction markets and options-like instruments carry risk. Outcome contracts are fully collateralized so you cannot lose more than your position size, but you can still lose your entire position if the outcome does not go in your favor. Always do your own research and never trade with more than you can afford to lose.